Housing Starts handily beat economists’ expectations this morning and CPI showed strength, too, sustaining the market momentum that has trended mortgage rates higher over the last 30 days. The Federal Open Market Committee has repeatedly told us that it expects the economy to slow down in 2007, led by a weakening housing market. And yet, [...]

With all signs pointing towards economic growth, markets were not all surprised when today’s Producer Price Index registered higher than expected. Mortgage markets are flat in response to the data. The impact of PPI is muted for three other major reasons, too: At 2.0%, the year-over-year increase in PPI is much lower than it has [...]

As a big chill settles in over the country, oil prices continue their decline and are now down 15% since mid-July. High oil prices are typically associated with inflation, but given the precarious balance of the U.S. economy, low oil prices may lead to inflation, too. Americans fuel the economy by spending money on goods [...]

In a week practically devoid of economic news, mortgage rates trended higher last week amid falling oil prices and surprise strength in Holiday Season spending. Investors are jittery about the U.S. economy. Since it stopped raising the Fed Funds Rate this past summer, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly told markets that it is expecting an [...]

For all of the talk about the slowdown in consumer spending, it appears that this Holiday Season was a winner. This morning’s Retail Sales report doubled economists’ expectations by showing 1.0% growth. This is just one more inflationary pressure in the economy and makes it less likely that the Fed will lower the Fed Funds [...]

In a "surprise" move, The Bank of England raised its benchmark by 0.25% to 5.250%. Only one of 50 economists surveyed had predicted the increase and its unexpected nature played a key role in moving mortgage rates higher today on this side of the pond. The Bank of England is equivalent to our own Federal [...]

After last week's data showed ongoing strength in the U.S. economy, there is a growing sentiment that the Fed will choose to raise the Fed Funds Rate before it begins lowering it. FFR currently stands at 5.250% and here is what markets are predicting over the near-term: After January 30-31 Meeting: Decrease to 4.750: 0% [...]

Interest rates remain inverted, a market condition in which the longer you commit to lending your money, the less that you earn on your investment. Why is that a big deal? Imagine if a friend asked you to borrow money for two years you charged him interest on that money. We can list some of [...]

This morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report (i.e. the number of new jobs created for industries other than farming) registered a 167,000 gain in November This is tremendously higher than the 115,000 jobs economists had predicted. Markets were caught leaning in the wrong direction after an ADP report released Wednesday said that 40,000 jobs were likely lost [...]

This summer, economists were predicting that 175,000 new jobs were created in June and then payroll processor ADP shared their own estimate of 368,000 with the markets. In a panic, mortgage rates moved higher because - well, what if ADP was right?!? The actual figure turned out to be 121,000. That major miss jolted the [...]