Zeus Has Unleashed the Cracken on MBS

I know, cheesy headline but c’mon. Look at the chart above. See that last big Red Bar on the right? That represents the price drop in the 4.5 FNMA Mortgage Coupon. Too technical? Just know that if a price of a bond goes down, the yield or interest rates that is passed on to borrowers is higher. So, the more and bigger the red bars you see, the worse rates get.

This is a significant argument that the FED MBS purchase program that was announced in Nov 2008 had a definite impact on mortgage rates. Most experts agree the FED intervention affected rates by over 1% If that’s true, then rates could be headed up over 6% in short order.  They spent $1.25 trillion on the program, affected the range by 1.75 (6.25% – 4.5%) and rates changed up to 5 times per during the program term Nov 2008 to March 2010.

Do You Know When to Lock Your Rate?

During the timeline outlined above, rates were on a nauseous roller coaster ride. The above chart is a snapshot of the market in real time. Most consumers don’t have access to this info, but a good loan officer does, at least they should. If you are out rate shopping in Oregon or Washington for a home loan, I am an active loan officer and if you have questions about rate volatility, when to lock or other mortgage related questions, give me a call or send me an email.

“Unleash The Cracken”! — Zeus

In its press release, the FOMC also noted that the U.S. economy “has continued to strengthen” and that the jobs markets “is stabilizing”. It also said that business spending has “has risen significantly”.

This is a slight departure from the Fed’s January statement in which housing was not mentioned and business spending was said to be “picking up”.

It’s also the sixth straight statement from the FOMC in which the Fed described the economy with optimism. This is a signal to markets that 2008-2009 recession is over and that economic growth is returning.

The economy is not without threats, however, and the Fed identified several:

1. High unemployment threatens consumer spending
2. Housing starts are at a “depressed level”
3. Consumer credit remains tight

The message’s overall tone, however, remained positive and inflation is within tolerance limits

Even bigger new for you and I in the mortgage world, Bernake also confirmed the end of its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage market by March 31, 2010.  This is huge for the Real Estate Mortgage Markets. See my earlier post FED Pulls Out in 37 Days: You Need to get Your Butt in Gear! from February 2010 for my thoughts. Fed insiders estimate that the bond-buying program lowered mortgage rates by 1 percent since its start.

Mortgage market reaction to the Fed press release is, in general, ambivalent. Mortgage rates are unchanged this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is a 2-day affair, April 27-28, 2010.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy “has continued to strengthen”, that the jobs markets is getting better, and that financial markets are supportive of growth.

There was no mention of the housing market’s strength.  The last 3 statements from the Fed included that specific verbiage.

It’s the fifth straight statement in which the Fed spoke about the economy with optimism.  This should signal to markets that 2008-2009 recession is over and that economic growth is returning to U.S. economy.

The economy isn’t without threats, however, and the Fed identified several in its press release, including:

1. Credit remains tight for consumers
2. Businesses are reluctant to hire new workers
3. Housing wealth is down

The message’s overall tone, however, remained positive and inflation appears is still within tolerance.

Also in its statement, the Fed confirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period” and to wind down its $1.25 trillion commitment to the mortgage market by March 31, 2010.  This is noteworthy because Fed insiders estimate that the bond-buying program suppressed mortgage rates by 1 percent through 2009.

Mortgage market reaction to the Fed press release is, in general, negative. Mortgage rates are rising this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is March 16, 2010.