Excerpts from the article:

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Now is literally the best time in recorded history to buy a house in America…

Right now – today – U.S. real estate is the most affordable it’s ever been. Ever.

When I say “affordable,” I’m looking at three things: house prices, mortgage rates, and incomes. With the Affordability Index near 200, the median family has 200% of the income necessary to buy the median home (or more specifically, to qualify for a conventional loan on the median home).

Right now, as you know, house prices are sitting near new lows for this cycle, down by roughly one-third (depending on who’s counting). And right now, mortgage rates – after ticking above 5% earlier this year – are all the way down to 4.5% again, near all-time lows.

So it’s simple: With the worst house-price crash in American history, combined with the lowest mortgage rates in history, you can now afford more home than ever. Meanwhile, hope is gone. Everyone thinks housing is hopeless. That is when a bear market ends and a new bull market begins.

At a conference I attended last month, some speakers spoke woefully of the large supply of houses for sale. That will take care of itself in time. Others bemoaned the certainty of higher interest rates in the future, which would hurt housing. But they shouldn’t be so certain…

Twenty years ago, Japan faced a housing bust similar to ours. Japan’s government has cut interest rates to near zero and printed money. And long-term interest rates in Japan currently sit around 1%. Even rising interest rates won’t kill housing… In the 1970s, interest rates were rising, and house prices outperformed stock prices.

The story is simple: House prices have fallen more than ever… And mortgage rates are lower than ever. If you can buy a house now (and want one), go for it.

Now is the best time in American history to do it.

Good investing,

Steve
http://www.dailywealth.com

Traditionally, spring is the hottest season for real estate. Sales peak in April and May and stay strong in June and July. It’s a good season for families to move, between school terms and while the weather is warm. People have just received their tax refunds, which they can use to help finance a down payment. And the nice weather and beautiful flowers in spring and early summer make it a great time to show your home.

In fact, a full 60 percent of America’s moves take place in the summer. But closing a sale can take weeks, so it’s a good idea to list your home early in the season.

Traditionally, August brings a lag in sales, as people go away on vacation and start to think about the new school year. Then sales surge briefly in the fall before dropping in winter as buyers and sellers focus on the holidays. But by January, buyers are out again, and sales steadily increase into spring.

If you can’t sell in the peak season, consider listing your house in winter. It may sound counterintuitive, but you probably already have the house decorated and cleaned for holiday entertaining, so it shouldn’t be hard to get it in shape for showing. Moreover, you will have less competition and may get a better price. Another plus: buyers in winter are less likely to waste your time or draw out the closing. They may want to close before the New Year so they can claim the mortgage deduction on their tax return, which you could turn to your advantage in pressing for a quick deal.

But seasonal ups and downs of the market aren’t absolutes. They don’t affect home sales as much in temperate climates, like California and Florida, where people house-hunt year-round. And warmer weather in the Northeast and Midwest in November and early December can prolong real-estate seasons there. Where I am, here in the Northwest, it’s pretty moderate and runs with the Nation’s norm.

Of course, selling in the hot season isn’t the whole story. You should pay attention to your local housing market and try to list during a seller’s market, when there will be more competition among buyers for your home – which could mean a better price, a quicker closing and fewer conditions on the offer. There aren’t too many places in the country right now where it’s a sellers market. There is lots and lots of inventory and not a lot buyers. There is also talk of another dip in Real Estate values. Your local real estate agent will be able to tell you what the local housing market is like. Take a look at the chart below, if you need to sell, now may be the time to get ahead of any further corrections. This just happens to be on Portland, OR. Follow this link to find more cities. http://www.macromarkets.com/real-estate/sp_caseshiller.shtml

Be aware of the underlying factors that influence the local market. Recent layoffs could mean a glut of desperate sellers, possibly driving down the market price of your house. Alternatively, you may be in an area of the country where housing prices are going through the roof. You may not be in one of those areas, but if prices in your area are on the rise, it can create a rush of buyers who want to close a deal before the prices go higher. Anticipation of an increase in interest rates can have a similar impact on the urgency of buyers. The later is actually more likely to happen. Rates it appears, have bottomed out and we are likely NOT to see 4.0% on a 30 year fixed again. If they keep creeping up, look for these fence sitters to get off and get moving.

In Summary, consult with your local real esate professionals. They are going to know the trends of  your local market better than anyone. Besides, it doesn’t really matter what’s happening in Nevada, Florida, California or Michigan… what really matters is what’s happening right in your own neighborhood. Good luck and happy selling!

Reporting on a two-month lag, the government said home values rose 0.7 percent in November. 

National home prices are at their highest point since February 2009.

But before we look too much into the FHFA’s Home Price Index, it’s important that we’re cognizant of its shortcomings; the most important of which is its lack of real-time reporting.

According to the National Association of Realtors™, 80% of purchases close within 60 days. As a result, because of its two-month delay, the Home Price Index report actually trails today’s market data by an entire sales cycle.

This is one reason why home values appear to be rising even while new data shows that both Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales fell flat last month.  The home valuation report is using data from November; the sales reports are using data from December.

The Home Price Index is a trailing indicator and next month, as the Spring Market gets underway, the government will be reporting data from the holidays.

The same is true for the Case-Shiller Index. It, too, operates on a 2-month lag.

All of that said, however, long-term trends do matter in housing and the Home Price Index has shown consistent improvement over the last 10 months.  In many markets, home sales are up, home supplies are down, and values have increased.  This trend should continue into the early part of 2010, at least.

If you’re wondering whether now is a good time to buy a home , consider low prices, cheap mortgages and an available tax credit as three good incentives.  By May, none of them will likely be available.

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates improved last week on the combination of weaker-than-expected economic data and new anti-banking rhetoric from the White House.

The S&P 500 shed nearly 4 percent in its worst weekly showing since October 2009 as all 10 sectors fell. As the money left stock markets, it made its way to bonds — including the mortgage-backed variety.

As a result, Oregon mortgage rates fell for the third straight week.

Since shedding 300 basis points in December, mortgage bond pricing has recovered a bit more than half of those losses.  It’s helping with home affordability and opening new refinance opportunities in Vancourver and around the country.

This week, though, mortgage rates could rise back up.  There’s a lot going on.

First, on Monday, the December Existing Homes Sales report will be released.  The report is expected to be extremely weak as compared to November.  This is because of a combination of factors including:

1. The initial tax credit expiration date of November 30, 2009
2. Sharply rising mortgage rates throughout the month of December
3. A general slowdown from the holidays and from the weather

Therefore, don’t be surprised by the newspaper headlines you see Tuesday morning.

Other data this week includes the Case-Shiller Index – a measure of home prices nationwide — and the New Home Sales report. The Case-Shiller Index has registered mild home price improvement over the past 8 months and its latest report is expected to show the same.  New Home Sales should be similarly strong.

But, the biggest news of the week is the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2010.

The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week and Wall Street will be watching closely.  The Fed is not expected to change the Fed Funds Rate from its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent, so, instead, markets will watching for the Fed’s post-meeting press release.

What the Fed says about the economy will be much more important that what it specifically does about the economy for now.  If the Fed says the economy is growing as expected, look for mortgage rates to rise. Conversely, if the Fed says the economy is at risk, expect mortgage rates to fall.

The safest rate lock strategy this week is to lock your mortgage rate before the Fed’s 2:15 PM ET adjournment Wednesday.  Rates will be bouncy all week, but once the Fed’s press release hits the wires, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen.