Traditionally, spring is the hottest season for real estate. Sales peak in April and May and stay strong in June and July. It’s a good season for families to move, between school terms and while the weather is warm. People have just received their tax refunds, which they can use to help finance a down payment. And the nice weather and beautiful flowers in spring and early summer make it a great time to show your home.

In fact, a full 60 percent of America’s moves take place in the summer. But closing a sale can take weeks, so it’s a good idea to list your home early in the season.

Traditionally, August brings a lag in sales, as people go away on vacation and start to think about the new school year. Then sales surge briefly in the fall before dropping in winter as buyers and sellers focus on the holidays. But by January, buyers are out again, and sales steadily increase into spring.

If you can’t sell in the peak season, consider listing your house in winter. It may sound counterintuitive, but you probably already have the house decorated and cleaned for holiday entertaining, so it shouldn’t be hard to get it in shape for showing. Moreover, you will have less competition and may get a better price. Another plus: buyers in winter are less likely to waste your time or draw out the closing. They may want to close before the New Year so they can claim the mortgage deduction on their tax return, which you could turn to your advantage in pressing for a quick deal.

But seasonal ups and downs of the market aren’t absolutes. They don’t affect home sales as much in temperate climates, like California and Florida, where people house-hunt year-round. And warmer weather in the Northeast and Midwest in November and early December can prolong real-estate seasons there. Where I am, here in the Northwest, it’s pretty moderate and runs with the Nation’s norm.

Of course, selling in the hot season isn’t the whole story. You should pay attention to your local housing market and try to list during a seller’s market, when there will be more competition among buyers for your home – which could mean a better price, a quicker closing and fewer conditions on the offer. There aren’t too many places in the country right now where it’s a sellers market. There is lots and lots of inventory and not a lot buyers. There is also talk of another dip in Real Estate values. Your local real estate agent will be able to tell you what the local housing market is like. Take a look at the chart below, if you need to sell, now may be the time to get ahead of any further corrections. This just happens to be on Portland, OR. Follow this link to find more cities. http://www.macromarkets.com/real-estate/sp_caseshiller.shtml

Be aware of the underlying factors that influence the local market. Recent layoffs could mean a glut of desperate sellers, possibly driving down the market price of your house. Alternatively, you may be in an area of the country where housing prices are going through the roof. You may not be in one of those areas, but if prices in your area are on the rise, it can create a rush of buyers who want to close a deal before the prices go higher. Anticipation of an increase in interest rates can have a similar impact on the urgency of buyers. The later is actually more likely to happen. Rates it appears, have bottomed out and we are likely NOT to see 4.0% on a 30 year fixed again. If they keep creeping up, look for these fence sitters to get off and get moving.

In Summary, consult with your local real esate professionals. They are going to know the trends of  your local market better than anyone. Besides, it doesn’t really matter what’s happening in Nevada, Florida, California or Michigan… what really matters is what’s happening right in your own neighborhood. Good luck and happy selling!

We are hearing that it will likely be four more meetings before the FF rate is increased, that takes to out to the latter part of this year. It all depends on the economy; we still think the foundations of the present optimism are too optimistic are too excessive, but that is that famous wall of worry it takes. Not only housing data; consumer confidence in Feb declined substantially; the Conference Board’s index of confidence dropped over 10 points (20%) from Jan to Feb to a low read of 46.0; the U. of Michigan consumer index didn’t slide at all and remained unchanged on the month——more to be confused about. Although the week was punctuated with very soft economic data, the equity markets held well with very little change in the key indexes. The interest rate markets improved; the 10 yr note yield fell 16 basis points to 3.62% and 30 yr mortgage rates declined about 8 to 10 basis points.

This Week; we believe will be one of the most important weeks in the last few months for the financial markets. Very key economic data this week; but none more important than Friday’s Feb employment data. The key data points this week are personal income and spending for Jan, both ISM manufacturing and services reports, Feb auto and truck sales, and the Fed’s Beige Book release. What will make this somewhat of a watershed week, and the relevance of the data releases, is what occurred last week with the very deep decline in consumer confidence. Markets are translating the collapse in confidence to more job losses and no improvement in wealth. We will add that many consumers that have managed to hold on, and hoped to wait the recession out, are now beginning to retreat as the end is slipping farther out for many that so far have “weathered” the economic recession. The early estimates for the Feb jobs report are for just 20K jobs lost and the unemployment rate to increase to 9.8% from 9.7% in Jan.

Early this week we are not expecting any additional improvement in the bond market, and equity markets to be relatively quiet. Based on the early estimates for the non-farm jobs, we believe the decline in jobs will be more than that, and the unemployment rate will be closing back toward 10%. The decline in interest rates last week had two legs; the continued increase in sovereign debt caused by debt problems in Greece, and safe haven moves by investors into treasuries that are taking some money off the table. Look for the week to become increasingly volatile at mid-week as players make adjustments for employment data.

Summary:  Las Week’s Negativity

• Consumer Confidence posted 16% short of expectations
• New Home Sales posted 13% short of expectations
• Initial Jobless Claims were higher than expected

Rates look fantastic right now; however all the risk of floating (not locking your interest rate) falls to Friday and the employment numbers.  The markets expect that 30,000 jobs were lost in February.  If the actual figure is better than 30,000 jobs lost, mortgage rates will rise. If it’s worse, rates will fall.

The take away from the revelations that sovereign deb among many  nations is still on the edge of breaking down; not what markets need now as the debate about recover is heating up.  Las week had very little economic releases from which to measure economic conditions.  The week’s major headline was the quarterly refunding by Treasury; it sold $81 billion of 3 yr notes, 10 10 yr notes and 30 yr bonds.  The 10 and 30 yr auctions were not up to recent standards of strong bidding, but were not failures.  China’s decision to increase their bank reserves by 50 basis points was met with concern in the US that Asian countries may try to slow growth rates that have escalated to increase concerns over inflation.

This Week:  unlike las week there are a number of economic report that will draw attention; no Treasury borrowing buy on Thursday treasury will announce the following week’s borrowing, 2 yr notes, 5 yr notes and 7 yr notes will be sold.  Wednesday Jan housing starts and permits, starts will likely be up while we expect permits to have declined after a big jump in Dec.

Most of the economic data this week will be on the manufacturing and business sectors with industrial production and factory use for Jan and the key Philadelphia Fed Business index expected to be a little better.  Interest rates remain tethered to a narrow range for mortgages, moving in a 10 basis point yield range; all focus is on the equity markets with a growing outlook of a major correction coming.  That said, the equity markets have been looking for a correction for the past month but so far… nothing.  A day or two of selling then a day or tow of rallies keeping the key indexes from and serious declines.  It is overdue, we expect the stock market will deliver a huge decline but as long as traders see any decline as a buying opportunity, no bis sell-off is likely.

Market Moving News for this week:

1. Housing Starts and Building Permits (Wednesday)
2. The release of the last month’s FOMC Minutes (Wednesday)
3. Business and consumer inflation figures (Thursday and Friday)